This "tool" is especially relevant during epidemics, when the "gates of the city are closed" and citizens must remain calm. Let's avoid the "bread" topic, which is written about today by all socio-political publications, and focus on "circuses", without which it would be impossible to keep the population of half the world in quarantine, so as not to disturb doctors from doing their hard and responsible work.

Unlike the ancient Romans, for whom the Colosseum and public baths were an Instagram, Facebook, newspaper, and public relations center, our communication capabilities are much more diverse: TV and radio broadcasting, Internet, mobile and fixed-line telephony based on satellite, mobile or fiber infrastructure. In 2018, the total revenue of the world telecom, according to various estimates, amounted to about 1.5 trillion US dollars. Thanks to modern means of communication, we have universal access to "circuses" and their choice is limitless. Renaissance Capital estimates that Russian telecom network traffic (broadband, mobile), among other things, will grow by up to 30% in the near future, depending on the country's region.

In recent years, there has been a lot of talk about changes in the TV and media market. On the one hand, experts recognized the fact that existing models for promoting content and services are dying with the advent of new technologies and changes in the consumption format. On the other hand, major telecom operators and media holdings refrained from seriously reviewing their strategies, relying on familiar mechanisms. However, the global world economic crisis associated with the coronavirus pandemic puts everything in its place.

Social distance, self-isolation, and measures aimed at suppressing the pandemic are radically changing the communication behavior of billions of people around the world. Netflix today reported that in the first quarter of 2020 it earned more than $ 700 million, 1.65 times increasing the subscriber base in the last two months alone (15.8 million subscriptions) due to viewers in Europe, Africa and the Middle East. Demand for the service is so great that in March, Netflix was forced to lower the quality of video in Europe, so as not to overload the Internet infrastructure. During the pandemic, the company hired 2,000 new employees in the Customer Support Department. However, modern audiences, just as in Ancient Rome, constantly demand novelty. It is very difficult to keep the viewer's attention – and here the coronavirus, which contributes to the growth of the subscribers number, plays a cruel joke: the quarantine forced Netflix to suspend production of new movies and TV series, whileUniversal and Disney break contracts with Netflix in an effort to increase the subscriber base of their own platforms. Russian "Rostelecom" noted a multiple increase in viewing the broadcast television, while views of movies and series from the video library increased five times. A lot of free content was uploaded, and the paid content grew by 80%. Global streaming share in the total TV time jumped to 23%, compared to 14% of the same broadcast period in 2019. In terms of viewing time, YouTube Kids is the leader - after schools closed in March 2020, the consumption of children's content has increased a lot.

There is no doubt that the increase in content consumption is related to the Covid-19 epidemic. Viewers are hungry for news and entertainment. The US rating agency Nielsen records that TV viewing increased by 60% during the quarantine period: "in the short term, traditional TV viewing and use of SVOD services increased, but you can't just say that this is 'good' for the TV industry", says Richard Broughton, research Director at Ampere Analysis. "Any weakening of the economy caused by the impact of coronavirus will inevitably lead to changes in consumer spending patterns for goods and services, and will undoubtedly have a negative impact on the advertising market." He also says that at the time of known economic downturns, consumers most often refuse to use pay-TV, which is quite logical. "During the last recession, the decline was observed in the movie market, DVD/BD [Blu-ray Disc] and the advertising video segment. Pay TV suffered a little later, although initially there was an increase in TV viewing. Now we are also seeing a short-term increase in OTT subscribers, but this situation is likely to continue until more economic damage occurs directly to households. In the long term will likely see a decline in the consumption of TV." For example, Digital TV Research believes that between 2019 and 2025, the number of households actively consuming TV in 16 European countries will decrease. The number of households in Eastern Europe has already fallen by 2.2 million over the past year. In 2025, Russia will account for half of the pay TV subscribers in Europe, but it is projected that in the period from 2019 to 2025, it will lose 2.91 million subscribers of this segment. In other words, a number of experts believe that the current growth will be short-term and attribute this to the general impoverishment of households and abundance of competitive supply.

In 2020, revenue from advertising, which is a medium for broadcasters, is projected to decrease by at least 10%. Shrinking advertising market is a consequence of the sequestration of companies marketing budgets amid the pandemic. This means that funds for content production are being washed out of the media industry. In Russia, about 175 billion rubles were spent on TV advertising in 2019, which is 6% less than a year earlier. TV companies expect that in April this year, the TV advertising market will lose up to 25% of revenue. At the end of 2020, the advertising market is expected to fall by 30-35%. It is forecasted that the only advertising segment of media that will show growth will remain the Internet (an increase of 2%).

Due to the pandemic, all offline events around the world have been canceled: exhibitions, festivals, conferences, and concerts. However, many of them are switching to an online format. One of the newest trends of "circuses" is the "events online" service. Modern technologies make it possible. For example, the Broadcasting&Media Association (IABM) launched a virtual platform, which is a single portal for interaction and promotion of products of the companies that are part of the ВАМ chain (Broadcasting&Media). The platform has become an imitation (virtual version) of a full-fledged international exhibition - a platform for presenting your company, products and services, interaction, conferences, experience exchange, etc. The platform is interesting for users because entrance to this exhibition is possible 365 days a year without holidays and weekends. Access to new products, as they say, when they are ready. Independent content distributors are already considering the possibility of creating a virtual film market that will include all the services available in the real exhibition world.

Due to postponement and cancellation of a huge number of traditional sports events in 2020, there is a decline in the segment of live broadcasts. Another new trend this spring is "eSports". eSports, based on traditional sports, is a small part of the ecosystem, which in 2019 was estimated at 923 million US dollars. eSports community attracts new fans from among the usual sports viewers by holding its tournaments in real time. Interaction of eSports with sports channels broadcasters, which have to fill the broadcast schedule of their TV channels with content during the "#stayathome" period, significantly increases the value of eSports rights for the media. Traditional sports are turning into virtual simulations. For example, NASCAR is launching a series of auto races on the virtual Homestead-Miami track with the participation of the current NASCAR Cup Series champion Kyle Busch; "Zwift", the virtual platform for running, plans to add a bicycle race to the virtual track running competitions, such as the "Tour of Watopia" in 2020. Futuresource Consulting expects an increase in the number of views of "Amazon Twitch", "YouTube Gaming" and "Microsoft Mixer" game streaming sites. It is reported that the number of viewers on these platforms has already increased by 12% compared to March 2019.

Market analysts are probably united in one thing - by the end of 2020, we will see a completely new telecom landscape, and a number of companies will be forced to leave the market. We will continue to publish reviews of new products so that our partners and customers can find interesting creative ideas that will make their creative teams work more effectively.

Authors: Ksenia Drozdova, Deputy General Director for Business Development, Russian Satellite Communications Company, Sergey Plotnikov, Director of Infocommunication Technologies and Multimedia Services, Russian Satellite Communications Company.